Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
